Objective  To understand the current state of the disease burden of hepatitis B in China 2019 and predict the trend of hepatitis B disease burden in 2020—2030.

Methods  The hepatitis B data of China were collected from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2019). The prevalence, incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD) and age-standardized rates (ASR) were used to describe the current disease burden of hepatitis B in China 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to describe the trend of hepatitis B disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019. A Bayesian age – period – cohort (BAPC) model was constructed using R 4.2.1 to predict overall hepatitis B incidence, death, DALY and YLL in China from 2020 to 2030.

Results  The overall disease burden of hepatitis B in China has shown a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019, the overall standardized prevalence of hepatitis B in China was 6 566.1 per 100,000, the standardized incidence rate was 1 397.3 per 100,000, the standardized death rate was 8.1 per 100,000, the standardized DALY rate was 247.7 per 100,000, the standardized YLL rate was 241.5 per 100,000 and the standardized YLD rate was 6.2 per 10,000. Those indicators have decreased by 2.34%, 2.35%, 4.92%, 5.15%, 5.20% and 2.71% respectively compared to 1990. All disease burden indicators for the female population were lower than those for the male population in the same period. The prevalence of hepatitis B is highest in the 20~24 age group, the incidence is highest in the 25~29 age group, and the death rate increases with age. The BAPC model predicts that from 2020 to 2030 the number of hepatitis B cases in China will be about 14,865,600 and the number of deaths will be about 111,800, the DALY will be about 6,349,000 person-years and the YLD will be about 121,000 person-years.

Conclusion  Despite a decreasing trend in the burden of hepatitis B disease in China from 1990 to 2019, there are still challenges to the goal of eliminating hepatitis B virus as a public threat by 2030. Therefore, it is necessary to extend diagnostic coverage, reduce the financial burden on patients and further promote the construction of healthy China.

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