Objective  To analyze the disease burden of laryngeal cancer in China from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the changing trend of disease burden of laryngeal cancer from 2022 to 2050.

Methods  The prevalence, incidence and mortality data of laryngeal cancer in China from 1990 to 2021 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the time trend of laryngeal cancer burden change. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict the changing trend of laryngeal cancer disease burden from 2022 to 2050.

Results  Compared with 1990, the age-standardized prevalence of laryngeal cancer in China in 2021 increased by 0.26% [95%CI(-0.05%, 0.64%)] , the age-standardized incidence decreased by 0.02% [95%CI(-0.26%, 0.30%)], and the age-standardized mortality decreased by 0.41% [95%CI(-0.55%, -0.23%)]. Risk factor analysis showed that smoking and alcohol consumption contributed more significantly to the mortality burden of laryngeal cancer than occupational exposure to asbestos and sulfuric acid. The age-standardized incidence of laryngeal cancer in China is expected to continue to increase from 2022 to 2050, while the age-standardized mortality rate will continue to decline. In 2050, the age-standardised incidence will increase to 3.98 per 100 000 for men and 0.82 per 100 000 for women, and the age-standardised mortality will decrease to 1.05 per 100 000 for men and 0.17 per 100000 for women.

Conclusion  There were significant gender differences in the disease burden of laryngeal cancer in China, and the age-standardized incidence of laryngeal cancer in China is expected to continue to rise by 2050. The disease pattern and risk factors of laryngeal cancer should be comprehensively studied, and timely intervention measures should be formulated to effectively reduce the disease burden of laryngeal cancer.

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