Objective  To analyze the secular variation trends of incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Dali Prefecture from 2005 to 2024, and predict the incidence.

Methods  Data on other infectious diarrhea cases in Dali Prefecture from 2005 to 2024 were collected based on  China Information System for Disease Prevention and Control. Jointpoint regression analysis was used to analyze the secular variation trends of incidence, and a SARIMA model was used to predict the trend of the incidence.

Results  A total of 19 953 cases of other infectious diarrhea were reported in Dali Prefecture from 2005 to 2024, with the reported incidence rate ranging from 5.31/100 000 to 143.64/100 000, and the average reported incidence rate of 28.56/100 000. Among the confirmed cases, the virus infection accounted for the majority (97.70%), and rotavirus was the predominant virus (87.67%). The results of the Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the reported incidence rate of other infectious diarrhea in Dali Prefecture revealed an overall upward trend from 2005 to 2024 [average annual percent change (AAPC)=11.17%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 8.01%-16.67%, P<0.001]. The secular variation trends of the incidence in the 12 counties of Dali Prefecture had their own characteristics, showing overall upward trends, with the AAPC values ranging from 7.27% to 37.15%. The differences were statistically significant (P<0.05). The incidence rates among different gender and age groups showed upward trends, and the differences were statistically significant (P<0.05). The constructed SARIMA (2, 1, 1) (0, 1, 0) ₁₂ model showed that the relative prediction error was 42.07%. It is predicted that the number of cases of other infectious diarrhea in Dali Prefecture in 2025 will be 5 817, showing an upward trend of the incidence.

Conclusions  The incidence of other infectious diarrhea diseases in Dali Prefecture showed a continuous upward trend. Although there were errors in the predictions by the SARIMA (2,1,1) (0,1,0)  ₁₂ model, its prediction results can still provide references for early warning and precise prevention and control of the disease.

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