Objective  To analyze the current status and changing trend of the disease burden of tension-type headache in China from 1990 to 2021, identify the key prevention and control populations, predict the changing trend from 2022 to 2035 and provide a basis for the formulation of prevention and treatment measures of tension headache.

Methods  Data on the disease burden of tension-type headache in China from 1990 to 2021 were obtained based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database, including incidence, prevalence and disability-adjusted life year (DALY). The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the changing trend of the disease burden of tension-type headache. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to evaluate the disease burden of tension-type headache in China stratified by age and gender.

Results  From 1990 to 2021, numbers of incident cases, prevalent cases and DALY of tension-type headache in China increased by 32.61%, 39.08% and 46.32%, respectively, all showing upward trends. The incidence and prevalence in both males and females exhibited a bimodal fluctuation pattern, with upward inflection points observed in the 30–34 and 70–74 age groups, and peaking in the ≥95 years age group. The DALY rate peaked in the 40–44 age group. The DALY, incidence and prevalence in females were all higher than those in males from 1990 to 2021. It is projected that from 2022 to 2035, the incidence, prevalence and DALY rate of tension-type headache among Chinese population are expected to continue rising, though there are relatively minor overall fluctuations.

Conclusion  The disease burden of tension-type headache in China has increased from 1990 to 2021. It is expected that the disease burden of tension-type headache among Chinese population will continue to increase by 2035. Comprehensive preventive measures should be taken, with a focus on the female group, and establish an effective prevention and control system.

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