Acute myocardial infarction mortality among Chinese residents from 2002 to 2021: an age-period-cohort model analysis

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Affiliation: College of Information Engineering, Liaoning University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shenyang 100847, China

Keywords: Acute myocardial infarction Mortality Trend Age-period-cohort model

DOI: 10.12173/j.issn.1004-4337.202306096

Reference: Dong D, Sun YQ, Yan Y. Acute myocardial infarction mortality among Chinese residents from 2002 to 2021: an age-period-cohort model analysis[J]. Journal of Mathematical Medicine, 2023, 36(10): 721-726. DOI: 10.12173/j.issn.1004-4337.202306096[Article in Chinese]  Copied

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Abstract

Objective To analyze the trends of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) mortality and influences of age, period and birth cohort on the AMI mortality among Chinese population, and to provide references for developing AMI prevention and control strategies.

Methods The data of AMI mortality from 2002 to 2021 in China were collected from the China Health Statistics Yearbook. The age-period-cohort model web tool was used to calculate the effects of age, period and birth cohort of AMI mortality.

Results The AMI mortality in China showed an upward trends from 2002 to 2021. The AMI mortality for urban and rural residents increased from 16.46/100 000 (standardized rate of 26.83/100 000) and 12.00/100 000 (standardized rate of 27.48/100 000) in 2002 to 63.25/100 000 (standardized rate of 43.39/100 000) and 78.62/100 000 (standardized rate of 81.85/100 000) in 2021, respectively. The results of age-period-cohort model showed that the net drift values of AMI mortality were 3.023% [95%CI (2.591%, 3.456%)] for urban residents and 7.174% [95%CI (6.475%, 7.878%)] for rural residents. There were significant differences in the age effect of AMI mortality among different populations, and the trend of AMI mortality among rural residents was significantly higher than that among urban residents with age in the same birth cohort.

Conclusion From 2002 to 2021, the mortality of AMI among Chinese residents showed a trend of first increasing, then stabilizing and decreasing. The elderly population aged 70 and above, especially those in rural areas, are dangerous populations, which should be concerned about in AMI prevention.

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