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Suicide mortality among Chinese residents from 2002 to 2021: an age-period-cohort model analysis

Published on Jun. 05, 2023Total Views: 5607 times Total Downloads: 1307 times Download Mobile

Author: Dan DONG Yan-Qiu SUN Yan YAN

Affiliation: College of Information Engineering, Liaoning University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shenyang 100847, China

Keywords: Suicide Mortality Trend Age-period-cohort model

DOI: 10.12173/j.issn.1004-5511.202303084

Reference: Dong D, Sun YQ, Yan Y. Suicide mortality among Chinese residents from 2002 to 2021: an age-period-cohort model analysis[J]. Journal of Mathematical Medicine, 2023, 36(5): 332-337. DOI:10.12173/j.issn.1004-5511.202303084[Article in Chinese]

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Abstract

Objective  To analyze the trends of suicide mortality and influences of age, pe-riod and birth cohort on the suicide mortality among Chinese population and to provide theoretical evidences for developing suicide prevention and control strategies.

Methods  The data of suicide mortality from 2002 to 2021 in China were collected from the China Health Statistics Yearbook. The age-period-cohort model web tool from the United States National Cancer Institute was used to cal-culate the effects of age, period and birth cohort of suicide mortality.

Results  From 2002 to 2021, the suicide mortality in China showed downward trends. The suicide mortality for male and female decreased from 14.20/100 000 (standardized rate of 21.27/100 000) and 13.90/100 000 (standard-ized rate of 17.84/100 000) in 2002 to 6.65/100 000 (standardized rate of 6.42/100 000) and 4.73/100 000 (standardized rate of 4.29/100 000) in 2021, respectively. The results of age-period-cohort model show that the net shift value in suicide mortality were -4.294%[95%CI(-4.758%, -3.829%)] for male and -7.106%[95%CI(-7.653%, -6.556%)] for female in all age groups and the age effect of suicide mortality among different genders are quite different, the suicide mortality of female in the aged 0-45 years is higher than that of male, while that of male over 45 years is higher than that of female; with 2007-2011 as the period control group and 1962-1966 as the birth cohort control group, the suicide mortality of different genders showed downward trends.

Conclusion  From 2002 to 2021, the decreasing trend of suicide mortality in China was greatly af-fected by period and birth cohort, female aged 15-35 years and male over 45 years are dangerous populations, which should be concerned about in suicide prevention.

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